8 research outputs found
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Towards drought impact-based forecasting in a multi-hazard context
Get PDFThe lives and livelihoods of people around the world are increasingly threatened by climate-related risks as climate change increases the frequency and severity of high-impact weather. In turn, the risk of multiple hazards occurring simultaneously grows and compound impacts become more likely. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) proposed the use of multi-hazard impact-based forecasting (IbF) to better anticipate and reduce the impacts of concurrent hazards, but as yet, there are few operational examples in the humanitarian sector.
Drought is particularly susceptible to multi-hazard influences. However, challenges encountered in the development of drought IbF systems – including poor understanding of compound impacts and specific hazard-focused mandates – raise important questions for the feasibility of multi-hazard IbF as envisioned by the WMO. With these challenges in mind, we propose an interim approach in which real-time assessment of dynamic vulnerability provides a context for drought-based IbF. The incorporation of dynamic vulnerability indicators account for the local effects of non-drought hazards, whilst the use of a drought-based system facilitates effective intervention. The proposed approach will improve our understanding of compound events, enhance adoption of IbF in the humanitarian sector, and better mitigate the impacts of concurrent hazards
Advancing operational flood forecasting, early warning and risk management with new emerging science: Gaps, opportunities and barriers in Kenya
Get PDFKenya and the wider East African region suffer from significant flood risk, as illustrated by major losses of lives, livelihoods and assets in the most recent years. This is likely to increase in future as exposure rises and rainfall intensifies under climate change. Accordingly, flood risk management is a priority action area in Kenya's national climate change adaptation planning. Here, we outline the opportunities and challenges to improve end-to-end flood early warning systems, considering the scientific, technical and institutional/governance dimensions. We demonstrate improvements in rainfall forecasts, river flow, inundation and baseline flood risk information. Notably, East Africa is a ‘sweetspot’ for rainfall predictability at sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales for extending forecast lead times beyond a few days and for ensemble flood forecasting. Further, we demonstrate coupled ensemble flow forecasting, new flood inundation simulation, vulnerability and exposure data to support Impact based Forecasting (IbF). We illustrate these advances in the case of fluvial and urban flooding and reflect on the potential for improved flood preparedness action. However, we note that, unlike for drought, there remains no national flood risk management framework in Kenya and there is need to enhance institutional capacities and arrangements to take full advantage of these scientific advances
Determinants of Household Willingness to Pay for Improved Water Supply: A Case Study of Baringo and Samburu Counties, Kenya
No full textRapid Study on Knowledge, Attitude, Perception and Social Economic Impacts Related to COVID-19 Outbreak in Kenya
No full textPrevalence and risk factors associated with diabetes in Meru County, Kenya: a cross-sectional study
Full text linkWho could have seen this coming? The Kenya red cross society and the drought appeal of 2019
Full text linkLearning outcomes
The case will be useful in helping learners: to appreciate concepts in and develop the necessary understanding to apply relevant theories in crisis communications; to identify communications issues along with the evolution of a crisis; to understand the importance and role of a crisis communications team; and to develop skills in writing a crisis communications plan.
Case overview/synopsis
The case is a narration of the experiences of the Kenya Red Cross Society (KRCS) as it launched the Kenya drought appeal in March 2019, and the unexpected media and public backlash that ensued. The background is that of an unusual-yet-previously-predicted dry spell, consequent drought and famine, alleged famine-related deaths, mixed signals from the national and county government and a hitherto well-regarded institution (the KRCS) coming in to launch an appeal aimed at raising funds to help alleviate the effects of the prolonged drought and consequent famine in the northern parts of the country. Unfortunately, a major media and public backlash that was not foreseen by KRCS ensued, and it threatened the reputation and very existence of the organization. Drawing on interviews and secondary material in the public domain, the case focuses on how the KRCS navigates the media and public backlash that ensued following the funding appeal. The case is interesting because of the type of organization involved (a not-for-profit institution set up as auxiliary to the government and of good repute), the nature of the problem (reputational crisis and attendant risk management), the setting (a LMIC in sub-Saharan Africa) and the level of analysis (organizational rather than individual decision-making).[AQ1]
Complexity academic level
Masters level – MBA, Executive MBA, Master’s in Public Management, Master’s in Communication and/or similar courses.
Supplementary materials
Teaching notes are available for educators only.
Subject code
CSS 11: Strategy.
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Recommended from our members
Advancing operational flood forecasting, early warning and risk management with new emerging science: Gaps, opportunities and barriers in Kenya
No full textKenya and the wider East African region suffer from significant flood risk, as illustrated by major losses of lives, livelihoods and assets in the most recent years. This is likely to increase in future as exposure rises and rainfall intensifies under climate change. Accordingly, flood risk management is a priority action area in Kenya's national climate change adaptation planning. Here, we outline the opportunities and challenges to improve end-to-end flood early warning systems, considering the scientific, technical and institutional/governance dimensions. We demonstrate improvements in rainfall forecasts, river flow, inundation and baseline flood risk information. Notably, East Africa is a ‘sweetspot’ for rainfall predictability at sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales for extending forecast lead times beyond a few days and for ensemble flood forecasting. Further, we demonstrate coupled ensemble flow forecasting, new flood inundation simulation, vulnerability and exposure data to support Impact based Forecasting (IbF). We illustrate these advances in the case of fluvial and urban flooding and reflect on the potential for improved flood preparedness action. However, we note that, unlike for drought, there remains no national flood risk management framework in Kenya and there is need to enhance institutional capacities and arrangements to take full advantage of these scientific advances
